Why BTC is positioned to outperform equities through 2035
Bitcoin has outperformed the S&P 500 in 8 of the last 11 years. With spot ETFs approved, a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve established, and the 2024 halving tightening supply, the structural advantages over equities are accelerating — not diminishing.
2015: BTC +35% | S&P +1.4%
2016: BTC +125% | S&P +12%
2017: BTC +1,318% | S&P +21.8%
2018: BTC -72% | S&P -4.4%
2019: BTC +95% | S&P +31.5%
2020: BTC +302% | S&P +18.4%
2021: BTC +59% | S&P +28.7%
2022: BTC -65% | S&P -18.1%
2023: BTC +155% | S&P +26.3%
2024: BTC +121% | S&P +25%
2025 YTD: BTC -15% | S&P -3%
Bitcoin has a hard cap of 21 million coins — enforced by code, not policy. The Fed has no such constraint. Since 2020 alone, the US money supply expanded by 40%. Bitcoin's supply grew by less than 2%. The divergence only widens.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024 and immediately outpaced gold ETF inflows in their first year. Pension funds managing $30T+ can now allocate. Corporate treasuries are following MicroStrategy's lead. The capital pipeline is unprecedented.
In 2025, the US signed an executive order establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve — a landmark shift. El Salvador, Bhutan, and others hold BTC at the sovereign level. No stock index benefits from government reserve buying. Bitcoin does.
Every ~4 years, Bitcoin's new supply is cut in half. The 2024 halving reduced daily issuance to ~450 BTC/day. The 2028 halving will drop it to ~225. Each halving historically precedes a new all-time high as supply shock meets growing demand.